Friday, October 19, 2007

Friday's filter results

Tough day in the market today but it means some good bargains to be had:

VDSI
NOV
OII
CYNO
JRJC
GLNG
FTK

If I was in the position to be buying I would go for VDSI and FTK..

TV

Thursday's Filter results

VSEA sold out today for me - 5%

M1:
VIVO
SRCL

M2:
MT**
ATNI
PCP
PCLN

M3:
SRCL

At the moment I am holding NILE, MT, AMX and LKQX in my portfolio. I bought MT after VSEA sold out.

TV

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Wednesday's results

Good day for VSEA!

M1:
ROS
SRCL
VIVO

M2:
EBIX
LKQX
AMZN
ONNN

M3:
ROS
HDNG

REMEMBER: SELL AT 5% - be disciplined becuase these stocks can be volatile!

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Todays filter results

Todays Filter results:

M1
VIVO
MT
SRCL
ROS
HDNG
WHQ
PKX

M2
SNCR
MITSY
AMX
ONNN
LKQX
CF
EBIX

M3:
ROS
PKX
AMZN
ONNN

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Todays Picks

I hope you got a nice 5% out of whq before it dropped today...

Todays filters:
M1:
CEDC
M2:
NILE**
ACO
M3:
WBD**
CMED
MR

** my purchases...

TV

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Todays picks

Todays filter results:
M1 : No picks
M2: No Picks
M3:
VSEA**
WHQ**

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

October 9th - filter results

Hi,

One of my stocks sold out nicely today (ESRX) for a 6% profit. CTV is really struggling and I am more than a little frustrated with it as it may continue to under-perform. Once it covers my costs - I am out!

I am away for the next three days so I will be back bloggin' next Monday...
Todays filter results:
M1 :
ITU**
KMGB
M2:
DADE
M3:
VSEA
WHQ**
KMGB performed badly today - 10% drop. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. BCSI (one of my picks from last week) did amazingly well - I think it is up 10+%.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Todays Picks

Filter results today (see previous post for explanation):

M1:
CRNT
DWSN
KMGB
ACO
WHQ**

M2:
No Picks

M3:
KMGB

blog changes

I have decided to change the style of my blog as I am getting a few requests to share all the stocks my filter shows up each day - not just the ones I suggest would be good buys. To be honest, IMO, pretty much all the stocks are winners if you were to buy and hold because all the stocks are fundamentally excellent. However, I look for a quick 5% gain, which soon mounts up over the year.

I use three filters which I will call Master1 (M1); Master2(M2) and Master3(M3). Master 1 has been the one I have used for the longest and is an oversold filter. Master2 is based on Bollinger Bands (BB) squeeze and the third (Master3) is a new one I am testing which looks at Moving Averages.

The way I use these filters : I put a relatively small amount of money on each stock shown as I believe that this ig good money management. It can give me a few hundred dollars gain (at 5%) with only a small loss (no more than 7%). For example, over the last 20 days only one stock has lost me money which has been more than made up by the ones that made money.

I will start with Thursday's (4th) and Friday's picks and then each Friday I will review the week. The stocks that are starred** are the stocks that I bought for my own portfolio. If there are 'no picks' it means my filter didn't not produce any picks that day within the parameters it looks at.

OCTOBER 4TH
Master1:
VSEA
BCSI**

Master2:
USM
HDNG
ACTU

Master3:
DRC

OCTOBER 5TH
Master1:
No picks

Master2:
No Picks

Master3:
No Picks

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Stocks Update...

A good week!

KCI sold out for a nice 5% profit. CTV is certainly on its way after going up by over 4% in one day. ESRX is also heading to 5% but is a little slower - it'll get there though!

I suggested GRMN on my last post and the results sepak for themselves - very good. The key witha stock like GRMN is that it has excellent fundamentals. When a stock like this is oversold then it is almost guaranteed to bounce.

Enjoy the Canadian Thanksgiving!

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

New Picks, CTV, KCI and ESRX

KCI and ESRX are doing well. They are both well 'in the money' and I am pleased with their performance. I am fairly confident that they will get to the 6% - 8% region soon. I will then sell. CTV is breaking even but showed a nice bullish candle today which indicates to me that it will go up. I am glad I held onto it now.

Other pick (if I had the money!)

GRMN

My filter threw out TBSI 2 days ago - jumped over 12% as of today - dang!

Have fun!
TV

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Confident about KCi and ESRX... not so sure about CTV

Hey!

I've been watching KCI and ESRX carefully and I am confident that both will continue up. CTV - not so sure. I have tightened my stop on CTV although it hasn't dropped by more than 5% since I bought so it is still within the realms of a good recovery.

I mus continue to be confident in my mechanical system!

We'll see what tomorrow brings!
TV

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

surprised but hopeful

I was surprised that CTV didn't continue to rise today but there is always tomorrow. Its drop isn't concerning more consolidation than anything else me thinks!

My main filter turned up nothing today. Another filter I use that looks for Bollinger Band Squeeze threw out ESRX. I won't be buying it but it is probably worth a look as the filter looks for stocks that are experiencing very close BB action - the tightest for six months.

Till tomorrow...

TV

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

USM, CTV reviewed...heading up

I recommended CTV and USM earlier this week. Both dropped yesterday but are picking up somewhat today. I am confident that they will reach my limit stop tomorrow. I'll enter it into my stock ratings for a closer look.

I was also keeping an eye on WNR but it has tanked more. It is never good when the management of the compnay is getting out of their own stock!

My filter thew out BTJ and WNR today. Neither of which I would buy due to both being regular visitors to my filter and neither of them perfomring particularly well. I am considering taking them both off my master list from which I search for stocks. I find that if the same stock continually shows as being oversold then it is not a good sign. Having said that I did make a swift 3%off BTJ last week.

More tomorrow!

TV

Friday, September 21, 2007

Week in Review

I think you would have to be pretty dumb not to be able to make money this week thanks to the interest rate drop. Also, it's a great week for us Canadians as the Canadian dollar equals the US dollar!

Here are some of my results and then I will finish with some 'advisements' for the future!

WNR -3.25
CADA +8.99
KCI -1.84 (this did make my 3% threshold though)
CRNT +9.21
BTJ -0.83 (This also made 3% earlier than this loss)
HDNG +9.86

I have recently been experimenting with selling out at 3%. This tends to give me more short term profits.

I think that the following stocks will hit 3 - 5% within a week:

USM and CTV.

Have a great weekend!

TV

Friday, September 14, 2007

TRMB makes more money

TRMB sold out nicely for a profit of 5%. It hit my limit sell at about lunch time.

The HDNG I bought dropped today but I am confident it will recover on Monday or Tuesday.

I always have a strong sell principle - 8%. I find that if these stocks drop by this much they tend not to recover. It is a manual stop so that they have room to move in the day.

The only stock I like the look of for Monday is CRDN

Later

TV

Thursday, September 13, 2007

DK was a hit and TRMB, HDNG

I was pleased with performance of DK. It made a quick 5% by the end of the day and hit my limit stop. I love it when a plan comes together. One of the things I learnt very early on was to be satisfied with a predetermined gain and then walk away. I could have kept it until today and made another 2% but I wasn't greedy!

TRMB is up today (it went down slightly yesterday) and I am confident it will hit 5% tomorrow.

I bought some HDNG today. This is an excellent stock that has amazing fundamentals. it is very cheap right imo. It made a nice 2% today and I am expecting it to press through the 5% tomorrow.
TV

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

small order for DK and TRMB

I just put a small order in for DK and TRMB. Both these stocks are oversold and have a great fundamentals. IBD shows that TRMB has better fundamentals than DK but both have promising charts for a pop.

Filter also threw up NVDA, MICC, BTJ and MTW. I was put off NVDA and MTW because they are stock splits. Although evidence would suggest that stock splits do well, I am a bit wary.

We'll see!

TV

Monday, September 10, 2007

ACTU is a buy

ACTU is a buy - see my stock ratings if you are interested in tracking...

Actuate accentuates reporting.

The company provides enterprise reporting and analytics software that corporations use to analyze business data and design, publish, and distribute report content through company networks and the Internet. Actuate's customers, including Bank of America, Dell, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin, use the software to publish financial statements, performance metrics, manufacturing and distribution reports, and customer account information. Actuate's service offerings include training and support, as well as professional consulting.

Key numbers for fiscal year ending December, 2006:
Sale: $128.6M
One year growth: 20.8%
Net income: $13.8M
Income growth: 19.1%

Saturday, September 8, 2007

GMCR and LKQX

GMCR
LKQX

These two stocks have excellent fundamentals. On IBD stock check they show a B+ and an A respectively. This makes them very attractive when they hit an oversold filter like mine due to the high probability that they are going to continue to climb after their little respite.

I have added them to my stock tracker on Nesteggr. Feel free to see the progress of some other recent picks.

I generally sell after a 5 - 10 % increase.

Enjoy your weekend

TV

Thursday, September 6, 2007

CYNO

CYNO hit my oversold filter today. This company is an excellent, fundamentally strong company that is in a general up trend but has been going through a correction.

I am not in a position to buy it at the moment but I think that it is well worth a watch. Ordinarily I would buy it at market open tomorrow (Friday) and sell after it reaches a 5% increase.

Let's see what happens!

T V

Friday, August 31, 2007

Transactions

The following list shows some of the holdings I have been able to have over the last month. Notice that each company is fundamentally strong... The date shows when it first appeared on my filter

If you have questions please contact me.

TDW -1.06%
08/12/2007
BF +3.90%
08/12/2007
HDNG +24.58%
08/11/2007

CAM +3.73%
08/11/2007
NVDA +11.36%
08/02/2007

FLIR +15.05%
07/31/2007

DRYS +26.75%
07/31/2007

MBT +3.70%
07/31/2007

ESI +4.08%
07/31/2007

PCP -4.96%
07/31/2007

GRMN +17.67%
07/31/2007

FSTR +20.42%
07/31/2007

Bollinger Band Squeeze

I am experimenting with another filter at the moment that looks for high quality stocks that are experiencing a bollinger band 'squeeze'. It basically looks for stocks where the BB's are the closest they have been for three months. It is likely that they will then 'pop' to a new high

Recent stocks:

VMSI

ROS

TDG

I have added them to my Nesteggr stock Ratings. Let's see what happens, should be fun!

Back in the seat

Well, vacation is over and it is time to get back onto the stock train.

My bottom bouncer filter has been pretty quiet this last ten days. It has only given :

SPWR: +13.39

Granted, this is a good return but I am used ot hvaing four five stocks a day. This reflects the market we are in. Everyone is jumping back into buying the high quality stock (what i concentrate on) and so there are very few over sold stocks showing up. I don't mind waiting as it doesn't lose me money!

A few people have asked how I find my stocks. Basically I have a list of 120 stocks that probably have some of the best fundamentals you can find. They are also from the strongest industries and have also shown a recent new high. I find these stocks by studying Investors Business Daily. It has taken some time but I now have a solid list that serves me very well.

From the list I then use Stock Fetcher to run some basic oversold filters. These filters are well documented on the site. I only run the filters within my master watchlist though. My system in not fancy but it brings great results.

Feel free to contact me if you have any other questions.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Review of stocks

This post should ave been put up on Tuesday. I got it on my nesteggr blog but not this one - apologies!


This week has been good on my KMaster filter:

Tomorrows pick - VIP

Last week's earnings:

KTII:+7.74%

VCO: +15.56

CAM:+4.90

TBSI: +40.71

NVT: +8.17

This filter is a bottom bouncer that looks for excellent performing stocks that are taking a breather.

My other filter has just thrown out:

ACUR

(Buy at start of day and sell at the start of the next day)

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

On a little break...

Will be back soon... I am sure the market will cope without my constant watching!
Till later!
TV

Saturday, August 11, 2007

And now, for something completely different...

I love to try out new filters. I guess it is my never ending quest for the illusive 'Holy Grail'!

LLNW - 7.94
PXLW - 1.07
DECK - 95.05
SNCR - 31.10
GSOL - 17.40

This list is a bunch of oversold stocks that are ready to bounce. I will be placing a limited order on the price shown and will sell on the open of the following day (Tuesday). $5000 on each - just for fun.

Let's see what happens...

TV



Friday, August 10, 2007

HDNG is a buy for Monday morning

HDNG turned up on my Williams filter. It performed extremely well today (Friday) and is looking very bullish for monday.

5% increase - sell
8% decrease - sell


"Please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website."

Cam is a buy!

As I mentioned yesterday CAM is now a buy. It has appeared on my bollinger Band filter for a couple of days and went green today. This is a buy signal for me.

I have strict rules - sell at a 5% increase or an 8% decrease.

Let's see what happens!

TV
"Please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website."

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Long Swings and Bollinger Bands

I have just returned from a few days away to discover once again that my usual style of investing / trading is not going to be possible. The market continue to be in a confirmed bearish decline and that is not good news for people like me - long swing traders.

My system is based on finding over sold quality companies that are showing signs of a bounce up. Needless to say in the present situation there are LOTS of companies that are oversold!

The only filter that shows promise right now is my bollinger band filter that identifies stocks that are being 'squeezed'. One stock that has shown up a couple of times is CAM. If this stock is NOT on my filter tomorrow then it is a confirmed BUY.

The filter looks for stocks from my master list which are experiencing a bollinger squeeze. In other words the bollinger bands are the closest they have been for some time. Once a stock opens green from this filter then it generally returns some nice results. I will blog more tomorrow to see the results.

Feel free to contact me if you want more explanation on this filter. I haven't got the time just now but will make time in the future to blog on it more comprehensively.

Thanks for reading!!

TV

Saturday, August 4, 2007

Nesteggr

I have just signed up with a new financial community called NESTEGGR . I have been very impressed with their fresh perspective towards all things financial - not just trading. I would highly recommend that you sign up and give it a go. You won't be disappointed.

Penny Stock or better?

Every now and again I read some of the penny stock sites and I am always impressed by the vigor and enthusiasm of those traders that swear by the pennies. I have traded some lower priced stocks in my time and I did make some money from them but then I moved away from the whole idea. Why?

Well, quite simply I wanted to have good idea which way my stock was going outside of pure technical indicators. Now, I know that not all penny stock investors only use technical but I would say a good chunk of them do. I wanted to have a reasonable chance that my stock would end up rising. Good fundamentals always makes technical analysis a sure(r) bet.

For example. If a stock that has been performing well, has great fundamentals, has large institutions buying into it and has had recent good financials suddenly hits one of my over sold filters then i have a good idea that this is a position that "it" (the stock) is not 'comfortable' staying in. In other words it's ready for a bounce. I am talking about the best companies in the US here.

Generally speaking the best companies are NOT penny stocks so that is why I stay away from them. I have developed a watchlist of about 100 stocks using Investors Business Daily. These stocks are quite simply the best. By the way, the list is not restricted to IBD's 100.

I run all my filters past this list. IF one of them hits it - it's a go. My fundamental analysis is already done and I am ready to go. In a fairly decent market my filter gives me a 90% success rate of the stock moving 5%+ within a ten day window. Not bad (in my opinion).

So, to sum up - go with an established list of stocks that have great fundamentals. Learn how they react in certain situations and invest with confidence!

Till next time!

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Wow, nothing like a good holiday to re-envision and clarify what life is all about. Family, family and family... wonderful!

While I have taken my time off the market has been going mental and I have been quite happy that I have not been involved! Cash is a safe place to be when you are swing trader.

It was interesting watching my portfolio just before the market took its down - turn as some of my stronger stocks started to loose money in ways that I had not predicted. This in itself was a warning sign to me and enabled me to respond before losing too much money.

As I have said before I am still in the process of working on my trading style and rules. As a beginner I spend a lot of time testing, retesting and after that a bit more testing! In between the testing I might squeeze in some reading. There are some fantastic blogs out there that have taught me a lot.

I have also had a good look at my master watch list and have changed it considerably. I am now using Investors Business Daily's 'eTables'. This enbales you to filter and screen using certain parameters. My Master watchlist now consists of stocks that have a rating of 90 plus for RS and EPS also their industry has an A rating. I have approximately 80 stocks on that watchlist right now.

From that watch list I use three filters that are looking for stocks that are ready to bounce.

5% is my profit stop with an 8% stop loss. I use 10% of capital on each trade which obviously results in my having ten stocks in portfolio at a time. As my capital increases so does my number of stocks in each trade (obviously!).

Here is a list of the stocks that my filters showed up recently:

Bolt Technology Corp (BTJ) -0.32%
Tele Norte Leste Participaes SA (TNE) -2.18%
Hardinge Inc. (HDNG) +0.86%
NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) -1.57%
FLIR Systems Inc. (FLIR) +0.96%
Stantec Inc. (SXC) -3.65%
DryShips Inc. (DRYS) +0.05%
Mobile Telesystems OJSC (MBT) +0.55%
Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC) -3.22%
Cynosure Inc. (CYNO) +1.75%
ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI) +0.81%
Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX) -3.22%
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH) -6.31%
RRSat Global Communications Network Ltd. (RRST) -5.95%
Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP) +2.65%
Garmin Ltd (GRMN) +13.12%
Southern Copper Corp (PCU) -5.73%
TBS International Ltd. (TBSI) +4.92%
L.B. Foster Company (FSTR) +7.57%

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Market and Bob

Well, the market has tanked and so I am sitting on the sidelines with cash in my pocket waiting for the market to turn around. Thankfully I went back to cash before it started to turn badly and so my profits weren't eaten up too much.

I have to mention an excellent article about averaging down - well worth a read in the light of all that is going on.

Bob's Advice

I love this blog and have gained much from it. Bob does an excellent job of humbly giving advice and sharing observations... thanks Bob!

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Two Words

Flippin' Heck!

The market trashed my portfolio today and it is looking pretty bleak. Never did like the colour red.

My only consolation is that the two latest additions were added due to great fundamentals and so I am sure they will bounce back. Famous last words? May be.

I am away fro a few days so hopefully by the time I look again there will be more green in portfolio!

Later...

Monday, July 23, 2007

My new set of stocks did quite well today.:

+0.00%
CHE
+4.91%
AFSI
+2.12%
CMCO
+0.52%
SNP
+0.48%
MFW
+0.81%
APLX
-0.46%
UEIC

I added CHE and CMCO to my portfolio while selling SPTN for +10.76%.

My open portfolio looks like this:


CMCO -0.80%
CHE +0.40%
JOSB -8.29%
DWSN +0.62%
CPX -4.48%
SF +1.51%
VCLK -1.16%

I am close to selling JOSB while believing that CPX could still bounce up. I am confident that CHE and CMCO will perform well over the next two weeks. If SF doesn't start performing well soon I may sell to put my money into something else.

Again I am trying to leave the stocks for long enough to bounce without over reacting to movements.

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Different watchlist

If I change my picks to only those that show up on the present IBD100 then I am left with...

CHE and AFSI.

Let's see how they perform compared to the other picks I chose...

New picks for watchlist


CHE

AFSI

CMCO

SNP

MFW

APLX

UEIC

All appeared on my screen. All have historically done well when they last appeared on my screen and all have excellent fundamentals. Track process by clicking on my stockpicks widget (right).

Tough week - distribution anyone?

Overall the week was a touch one for me.

JOSB -9.66%
DWSN +1.80%
CPX -4.48%
SF +2.21%
SPTN +8.34%
VCLK -0.70%

JOSB - Very close to selling this one. What can I learn? Well, I should have bought it when it first appeared on my screen and then sold it for a nice 5%. I added it too late.

CPX. The chart for CPX is still pretty good. I am still hopeful that it will turn around. It is still a long ways from selling.

All the other stocks are fine.

ANyone with a slight understanding of the market will look at my portfolio and see that it is not as bad as it looks! I have a nice profit in SPTN (if I can hold onto it!) and the only only issue is JOSB.

So Friday was the second distribution day we have had in three days - not good. Here is what IBD's 'Big Picture' says:

"The session capped a choppy week for the market, one that featured subprime woes, inflation fears, good and bad profit reports and record highs.

The week started with modest gains. But on Wednesday the NYSE indexes dropped early on, following renewed concerns over subprime mortgages and testimony by Ben Bernanke on Capitol Hill that fanned inflation fears.

They recouped most of those losses by the session's close, but still logged a distribution day. Friday's additional round of higher-volume selling sent the indexes down for the week.

The Nasdaq shed 0.7% for the five days. The Dow lost 0.4%, the S&P 500 1.2% and the NYSE composite 1.4%."

Changes to my master watchlist

I have made the following changes to my master watchlist. They are all because they are no longer listed as A's on IBD 100 and are not showing good technicals anymore:

BWLD
CPX
FCSX
OPY
TSO
TTEC

Additions include:

GRP
ISRG
NVT
PVG
SCHN

Overall additions and deletions from the IBD 100:

Added:
AVT CAM FLIR GRP ISRG NVT OYOG PVG SCHN SII SLB SXC WHQ

Deleted:
CBG CMCO CPA FMCN MTOX NVDA SI SNP TNE TSO TTEC WFR WNR

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Trade musings

I started this blog to be honest and so this section is to share my thoughts about HOW I should trade the stocks I have. The danger in sharing this sort of stuff is that it sounds like you have no idea what you are doing. Well.... there are days! Take FTK for instance!

There are three big questons.

1. What should my stop loss be?

The stocks are very volatile (they go up and down in price a lot) and so it is important to give them room to move. I checked through some of analysis (back tests etc) and I have found that if the draw down is more that 8% within the first 4 four week than often the stock doesn't perform well at the end of those four weeks (Assuming I would leave it that long).

BUT often these stocks do experience a drop in price in the first few days (that can be scary to ride out) which then turns into a very nice profit. So when to sell? That is the question.

Should I sell at 8% and possibly mis out on a big move?
Should I sell at 10% because 10% because anything after that is not good.
Should I keep and hope?

Even as I write that last one I can't believe I am contemplating doing something so stupid!

2. When to take a profit?

I find that the majority of these stocks reach 5% within 10 days of trading. But then they often go on to make more. The answer to this one is simple. Build in a trailing stop loss after 5% (which locks in profits) and then keep a close eye on the charts.

3. Do I leave them all for 3 weeks (15 trading days)?

According to my back testing thee stocks often get into double figures by the time they reach 15 days. One stock got to 90%! I like the idea of buying and keeping although patience is the key.

I am leaning towards just leaving with a 10% stop loss. Give the stock room and believe in the system. If The stock hits 10% before 15 days... sell.

Let's see how it goes!

New watchlist

-0.00%
SNHY
+2.01%
DWSN
-0.30%
JOSB
-4.88%
CPX
+7.06%
SF
+8.96%
SPTN
+10.42%
oyog
+9.48%
RS
+14.22%
VSEA
+2.28%
AVT
+40.35%
Rimm
+4.81%
ESI

The only addition is SNHY which showed up on my filter yesterday. The percentages are different on my screen compared to my portfolio because of when the stock was added to my portfolio.

Portfolio and Watchlist rollercoaster



Woah - hold on!

Lots has happened since my last post two days ago.

Overview is as follows:

I sold FTK due it continuing to fall. My lesson from this stock was that I shouldn't have bought it half way through the day. My screen didn't show it at the end of the day and so should not have been included. I sold it at a loss of -12.47%

I sold OYOG for a profit of +11.02%. This stock was chosen on the basis of good fundamentals and it had also been gaining nicely on my watchlist for a couple of days.

I sold VSEA for a profit of +12.59%. Same as above. See my comments on the next blog regarding some potential new rules.

My portfolio now looks like this:

JOSB -3.53% 07/17/2007
DWSN -0.12% 07/17/2007
CPX -6.24% 07/12/2007
SF +5.50% 07/10/2007
SPTN +7.99% 07/10/2007
VCLK +1.76% 07/10/2007


I added JOSB and DWSN . I added DWSN the day after it appeared on my screen and JOSB was found on my screen a few days ago. I do wonder about JOSB as it may have had its initial good move already. We'll see. Part of what I am trying to figure out is whether selling at 5% is the best way to go in which case I am too late with JOSB.

I am holding onto CPX but I am watching it carefully.

I am close to selling SF and SPTN as they are nearing good profit points for me.

Monday, July 16, 2007

watchlist changes

I'm taking CPA, EML and JOSB off my watchlist. They don't have the fundamentals that I am looking for and I will also be removing them from my watchlist in social picks.

Backtesting

Okay, I was so concerned that FTK was messing up my system I went through my back tests again to make sure that I wasn't going mental. Stockfetcher has a system that allows you to back test any screens you have.

Basically it applies your screen to whatever dates parameters that you input. For me I put in a test that went from May 1st to now. The results are as follows.

Remember that my system has an 8% stop loss and I should hold until fifteen days. What I am deliberating about now is whether to widen my stop loss to take advantage of those trades that ALWAYS seem to swing back into profit by day fifteen.

Look at the "Draw Down" column. That tells you what the maximum percentage is that would be lost. Notice also how attractive the 15 day column is. If I left it longer it would be great too.

Also notice how robust the screen is. In other words, whether it is a good day or bad day in the market - doesn't matter.

I have a feeling I should leave my stock until 15 days regardless - the profits are too good to miss.

Last thing to notice... FTK is not on the screen. Why? Well, I messed up. I ran the screen before the market finished. It was NOT on the screen at the day so it should never have been bought. That mistake has cost me a few hundred dollars. Worth it though.

These stocks were chosen from the middle of May to show you the performance of this screen. I set the stop loss at 105 and the profit stop at 10% as well - in other words the stock would sell either at a loss or gain of 10%.

In the gain / loss column if it says 10.00% it means the stock hit 10% gain within 30 days. If -10.00% then it hit a 10% loss.



Symbol Draw Down Gain/
Loss
5 day chg 10 day chg 15 day chg 20 day chg 30 day chg


SNDA-3.33% 10.00% -0.88% 5.25% 14.88% 13.48% 12.56%


CF0.00% 10.00% 4.56% 5.72% 10.64% 14.40% 34.34%


MGM-8.40% 19.33% -3.71% -8.27% 19.77% 18.63% 22.84%


VCLK-4.01% 11.45% 0.44% 2.69% 18.38% 18.38% 10.35%


AQNT-2.83% 90.00% 1.52% 90.15% 90.03% 90.60% 89.97%


VOLV-3.55% 10.32% 6.15% 9.54% 11.99% 6.78% 5.84%


ALY-1.66% 10.40% 1.83% 7.25% 13.39% 16.82% 30.44%


OYOG-5.10% -% 2.36% 1.74% 3.05% 5.23% 2.60%


WBD-4.76% 10.00% -0.29% -2.44% 13.64% 6.65% 10.35%


MICC-0.42% 10.00% 2.48% 0.89% 12.88% 3.43% 13.02%


SIMO-9.86% 10.00% -2.26% -0.81% 4.03% 7.01% 13.17%


TTEC-13.02% -10.00% 1.13% -4.34% 1.04% -4.92% -8.94%


DXPE0.00% 10.00% 11.00% 13.24% 4.52% -7.24% -7.17%


IFSIA-4.96% 10.39% -4.48% -0.24% 7.11% 7.71% 12.01%


JST-4.35% 10.08% 3.36% 4.46% -0.88% 0.55% 5.12%


FCSX-11.14% -10.00% -2.43% -6.14% 4.97% 17.55% 27.29%


PCLN-1.39% 10.00% 11.93% 10.74% 11.88% 13.07% 18.88%


MFW-1.20% 10.00% 7.90% 15.71% 17.27% 15.71% 13.13%


AXE-3.42% 10.00% 2.76% 1.98% 0.21% 0.54% 5.07%


AZZ-5.21% 10.19% 15.58% 27.15% 13.97% 3.63% 15.43%


FLIR-1.81% 10.00% 1.61% 2.58% -0.55% 4.66% 14.43%


ROLL-2.33% 10.05% 3.06% 3.71% 9.18% 7.21% 11.76%


GRMN-1.48% 10.00% 8.75% 16.08% 14.03% 24.66% 32.16%


STP-8.96% 10.00% 2.20% -1.68% -8.38% -1.42% 9.51%


RS-13.73% -10.00% -1.66% -0.78% -7.29% -5.66% -5.91%


CMED0.00% 10.00% 5.59% 7.30% 17.04% 37.75% 37.61%


SPTN-4.31% 10.00% 0.76% 2.06% 22.79% 21.79% 26.41%


AVT-4.18% -% 4.11% 0.24% 3.52% 2.60% 0.12%


ELP0.00% 10.86% 15.30% 11.68% 25.20% 23.28% 35.55%


DSX-0.86% 10.00% 10.00% 4.88% 0.38% 3.73% 16.55%


EDU-0.34% 10.00% 7.50% 3.47% 9.60% 16.15% 31.30%


BHP-0.55% 10.00% 6.31% 9.93% 14.05% 17.21% 32.18%


WFR-0.83% 10.00% 9.22% 2.90% 3.79% 2.23% 11.66%


PCAR-0.84% 10.00% 2.53% 1.93% 7.07% 3.25% 10.43%


CLB-2.34% 10.00% 2.60% 0.27% 5.11% 5.50% 16.89%


GMCR-0.03% 10.00% 7.22% 8.10% 18.85% 18.43% 41.42%


BAP-5.43% 10.00% -1.03% -3.88% 5.36% 3.03% 6.03%