watchlist changes
I'm taking CPA, EML and JOSB off my watchlist. They don't have the fundamentals that I am looking for and I will also be removing them from my watchlist in social picks.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Backtesting
Okay, I was so concerned that FTK was messing up my system I went through my back tests again to make sure that I wasn't going mental. Stockfetcher has a system that allows you to back test any screens you have.
Basically it applies your screen to whatever dates parameters that you input. For me I put in a test that went from May 1st to now. The results are as follows.
Remember that my system has an 8% stop loss and I should hold until fifteen days. What I am deliberating about now is whether to widen my stop loss to take advantage of those trades that ALWAYS seem to swing back into profit by day fifteen.
Look at the "Draw Down" column. That tells you what the maximum percentage is that would be lost. Notice also how attractive the 15 day column is. If I left it longer it would be great too.
Also notice how robust the screen is. In other words, whether it is a good day or bad day in the market - doesn't matter.
I have a feeling I should leave my stock until 15 days regardless - the profits are too good to miss.
Last thing to notice... FTK is not on the screen. Why? Well, I messed up. I ran the screen before the market finished. It was NOT on the screen at the day so it should never have been bought. That mistake has cost me a few hundred dollars. Worth it though.
These stocks were chosen from the middle of May to show you the performance of this screen. I set the stop loss at 105 and the profit stop at 10% as well - in other words the stock would sell either at a loss or gain of 10%.
In the gain / loss column if it says 10.00% it means the stock hit 10% gain within 30 days. If -10.00% then it hit a 10% loss.
| Symbol | Draw Down | Gain/ Loss | 5 day chg | 10 day chg | 15 day chg | 20 day chg | 30 day chg | ||
| SNDA | -3.33% | 10.00% | -0.88% | 5.25% | 14.88% | 13.48% | 12.56% | ||
| CF | 0.00% | 10.00% | 4.56% | 5.72% | 10.64% | 14.40% | 34.34% | ||
| MGM | -8.40% | 19.33% | -3.71% | -8.27% | 19.77% | 18.63% | 22.84% | ||
| VCLK | -4.01% | 11.45% | 0.44% | 2.69% | 18.38% | 18.38% | 10.35% | ||
| AQNT | -2.83% | 90.00% | 1.52% | 90.15% | 90.03% | 90.60% | 89.97% | ||
| VOLV | -3.55% | 10.32% | 6.15% | 9.54% | 11.99% | 6.78% | 5.84% | ||
| ALY | -1.66% | 10.40% | 1.83% | 7.25% | 13.39% | 16.82% | 30.44% | ||
| OYOG | -5.10% | -% | 2.36% | 1.74% | 3.05% | 5.23% | 2.60% | ||
| WBD | -4.76% | 10.00% | -0.29% | -2.44% | 13.64% | 6.65% | 10.35% | ||
| MICC | -0.42% | 10.00% | 2.48% | 0.89% | 12.88% | 3.43% | 13.02% | ||
| SIMO | -9.86% | 10.00% | -2.26% | -0.81% | 4.03% | 7.01% | 13.17% | ||
| TTEC | -13.02% | -10.00% | 1.13% | -4.34% | 1.04% | -4.92% | -8.94% | ||
| DXPE | 0.00% | 10.00% | 11.00% | 13.24% | 4.52% | -7.24% | -7.17% | ||
| IFSIA | -4.96% | 10.39% | -4.48% | -0.24% | 7.11% | 7.71% | 12.01% | ||
| JST | -4.35% | 10.08% | 3.36% | 4.46% | -0.88% | 0.55% | 5.12% | ||
| FCSX | -11.14% | -10.00% | -2.43% | -6.14% | 4.97% | 17.55% | 27.29% | ||
| PCLN | -1.39% | 10.00% | 11.93% | 10.74% | 11.88% | 13.07% | 18.88% | ||
| MFW | -1.20% | 10.00% | 7.90% | 15.71% | 17.27% | 15.71% | 13.13% | ||
| AXE | -3.42% | 10.00% | 2.76% | 1.98% | 0.21% | 0.54% | 5.07% | ||
| AZZ | -5.21% | 10.19% | 15.58% | 27.15% | 13.97% | 3.63% | 15.43% | ||
| FLIR | -1.81% | 10.00% | 1.61% | 2.58% | -0.55% | 4.66% | 14.43% | ||
| ROLL | -2.33% | 10.05% | 3.06% | 3.71% | 9.18% | 7.21% | 11.76% | ||
| GRMN | -1.48% | 10.00% | 8.75% | 16.08% | 14.03% | 24.66% | 32.16% | ||
| STP | -8.96% | 10.00% | 2.20% | -1.68% | -8.38% | -1.42% | 9.51% | ||
| RS | -13.73% | -10.00% | -1.66% | -0.78% | -7.29% | -5.66% | -5.91% | ||
| CMED | 0.00% | 10.00% | 5.59% | 7.30% | 17.04% | 37.75% | 37.61% | ||
| SPTN | -4.31% | 10.00% | 0.76% | 2.06% | 22.79% | 21.79% | 26.41% | ||
| AVT | -4.18% | -% | 4.11% | 0.24% | 3.52% | 2.60% | 0.12% | ||
| ELP | 0.00% | 10.86% | 15.30% | 11.68% | 25.20% | 23.28% | 35.55% | ||
| DSX | -0.86% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 4.88% | 0.38% | 3.73% | 16.55% | ||
| EDU | -0.34% | 10.00% | 7.50% | 3.47% | 9.60% | 16.15% | 31.30% | ||
| BHP | -0.55% | 10.00% | 6.31% | 9.93% | 14.05% | 17.21% | 32.18% | ||
| WFR | -0.83% | 10.00% | 9.22% | 2.90% | 3.79% | 2.23% | 11.66% | ||
| PCAR | -0.84% | 10.00% | 2.53% | 1.93% | 7.07% | 3.25% | 10.43% | ||
| CLB | -2.34% | 10.00% | 2.60% | 0.27% | 5.11% | 5.50% | 16.89% | ||
| GMCR | -0.03% | 10.00% | 7.22% | 8.10% | 18.85% | 18.43% | 41.42% | ||
| BAP | -5.43% | 10.00% | -1.03% | -3.88% | 5.36% | 3.03% | 6.03% |
Todays Picks
Portfolio Recap
My Portfolio is as follows after todays trading:
| CPX | -3.00% (dropped from +0.64) | ||||||||||||
| FTK | -7.33%(dropped from -1.14) | ||||||||||||
| SF | +4.71%(dropped from +5.88) | ||||||||||||
| SPTN | +9.09% (Increased from +7.02) | ||||||||||||
| VCLK | -3.81%(dropped from -1.26 | ||||||||||||
| OYOG | +9.01% (Increased from +5.02) | ||||||||||||
| VSEA | +3.93%(Increased from 3.55%) |
I think that my portfolio has reflected the general market trading day which wasn't very impressive.
My general watch list is as follows:
| (CPA) | -0.98% | ||
| (MTOX) | +13.41% | ||
| (JOSB) | +0.88% | ||
| (CPX) | -1.28% | ||
| (FTK) | -7.42% | ||
| (SF) | +5.00% | ||
| (SPTN) | +8.90% | ||
| (OYOG) | +8.44% | ||
| (RS) | +9.34% | ||
| (VSEA) | +2.83% | ||
| (AVT) | +2.67% | ||
| (RIMM) | +38.69% | ||
| (ESI) | +6.99% |
Overall my watch list is very healthy. If only I had bought MTOX and JOSB instead of FTK and CPA. I can only improve....
Investors Business Daily said this about todays market:
"Only the Dow held its earlier gains as stocks pulled back in late afternoon trading, amid a possible renewal of subprime mortgage fears .
At 3 p.m., the Dow was up 0.3%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.2%.
Volume was tracking a little lower on NYSE, but slightly higher on Nasdaq.
Copa Holdings (CPA) descended 2.31 to 61.54. On Friday, it breached its 50-day moving average for the first time in a month. The Panama-based airline is now near the lows of its prior base-on-base pattern."
The Emotions of Trading
When I started this blog I determined within my self that it would be a "Warts and All" blog. The good, bad and ugly would be shared. I am no Warren Buffet and there will be times when I make crappy decisions...
"Please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website."
The not so fun part of investing is dealing with the emotional roller-coaster. Generally this involves accepting mistakes and taking them as learning experience. I know of no trader who is right 100% of the time. I am certainly NOT right 100% of the time.
They say that with good money management, if you are right 50% of the time, you can make money. The Rumpled One from Stockfetcher is well known for saying "It's not what you trade it is how you trade it."
This all said, I learnt something today (code for lost money!). FTK was put into my portfolio last week after they had announced a stock split. This is where every stock is split into two, for example a $100 stock is now worth $50. The good news is that you end up with twice the number of stocks so you don't lose money. FTK appeared on my screen and I bought it. Last time I looked it had lost 7% - 1% off my sell point.
This brings me to other emotional aspect of trading. Leaving the stock for 15 days before selling. I am constantly tempted to leave the stock instead of selling. I am confident of the screen. I am confident that it will bounce.
I will check the charts at the end of the day and make a decision then.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
